CA-10: Election Results
The much ignored but important special election in California's 10th Congressional concludes tonight. Polls in California close at 8pm local time.
Prediction: David Harmer declares his candidacy for 2010 tonight instead of conceding the election.
| CA-10 | 100.00% |
| John Garamendi (D) | 66,311 (52.98%) |
| David Harmer (R) | 53,441 (42.69%) |
| Jeremy Cloward (G) | 2,314 (1.85%) |
| Jerry Denham (AI) | 1,435 (1.15%) |
| Mary C. McIlroy (P&F) | 1,672 (1.34%) |
Updated Unrelated to the 10th Congressional District completely, San Ramon City Council had an election for two seats and both incumbents, David Hudson and Jim Livingstone, comfortably won with 39 and 32 percent of the vote, respectively. Contra Costa Times had recommended Jim Brady and Doug Burr, for "much-needed change to a local government that must display more openness and respect for the will of the voters." So much for that.
CA-10: What a Garamendi Victory Means
Garamendi is expected to win today's special election.
Polls close in California's special election to replace former Rep. Ellen Tauscher in the 10th Congressional District at 8pm local time, but most observers discount any shot Republican David Harmer has to win in this heavily Democratic district.
John Garamendi, the state's current lieutenant governor, dropped out of next year's governor's race to make a play for this seat, and he is likely to do just that.
David Dayen wrote that a Garamendi victory is not yet another Democrat taking over a previous Democrat's seat. Rather, it is a transition from the Democratic centrists to the progressive caucus.
Democratic seat, “near San Francisco,” no big deal. A Democrat replaces a Democrat in Congress. Ho-hum.
Except the difference between the departed Ellen Tauscher and the incoming John Garamendi is numerous. Tauscher led the pro-business New Democrats; Garamendi, the state’s Lieutenant Governor, is one of California’s leading progressives and a longtime single-payer advocate. Tauscher ran away from progressive values; Garamendi charges toward them. Tauscher and her allies were fond of explaining that CA-10 was a moderate district and only moderates could win there; Garamendi ran as himself and will win today. In fact, because of the prominence of vote-by-mail in California, he probably already has.
One cannot help but to chuckle at the attempts of the conservative media and their allies to try to spin the race as competitive. Noel Sheppard, an "editor" of the far-right website, claimed in a FOX News opinion piece, "Today's Big Political Earthquake Could Be In California."
CA-10: Harmer’s Final Push TV Ad
Republican David Harmer quoted the liberal blog Calitics in a new, poorly-produced television advertisement. The ad includes two attacks on John Garamendi on healthcare.
The ad cites this answer from Garamendi in an interview with David Dayen last August:
DD: What are the pluses and minuses of putting this in the hands of the Feds?
JG: If it's a federal process, you'd have to set up a massive new federal bureaucracy. In the positive sense. But you have to have a police force, because otherwise, the insurers won't do it. That's a major, expensive undertaking for the federal government. There's an advantage to the existing mechanism in that it already exists, like with Medicare or Medicaid. However, you mentioned some of the problems with how the regulation changes depending on the state. So both options have shortcomings. Either way, if we have a bill based on insurance reform, it has to be dealt with. And I've been dealing with these companies for eight years of my life. I know how to do this.
The sourcing on the second attack came from Garamendi's announcement last year that he was running for governor and, in the article Harmer's campaign cited, Garamendi wasn't directly quoted as saying, "without apology," as the ad suggests.
Garamendi laid out broad goals of establishing universally available healthcare through a publicly financed insurance system, bolstering the state's universities and pursuing aggressive reductions in carbon emissions. He said he would resolve perennial budget stalemates through a combination of spending cuts, systemic reforms and -- without apology -- tax increases.
The only sources claiming it is a direct quote are the Marin County GOP, Yolo County GOP, Fresno County GOP, San Diego County GOP, California's Right to Life Committee, and the Breitbart right-wing attack site, Big Government.
Conclude what you will about those organizations' agendas.
To be clear, Garamendi continues to support tax increases on the wealthy as he did while running for governor but the Harmer campaign and Republicans want to make unsuspecting voters believe Garamendi wants to raise taxes across the board, which is just false.
CA-10: National Republicans Write Off Harmer
Swing State Project examined the national Republicans targets for the upcoming election and noted the Republican challenger in the special election for the 10th Congressional next week, David Harmer, did not move up in the Young Guns program from the bottom rung "On the Radar" to second tier "Contender."
Of those initial thirteen picks, four didn't make the jump: Van Tran (CA-47), Adam Kinzinger (IL-11), Charles Djou (HI-01), and Jon Barela (NM-01). (Kinzinger, for what it's worth, has been officially endorsed by the NRCC, the only candidate other than Dennis Ross in FL-12 to be so honored.) Two other dudes who were added later (but before this round) also stay put: David Harmer (CA-10) and Greg Ball (NY-19). I have to believe this means the GOP is writing off any hope of a stunning Harmer upset in next week's special election.
CA-10: Candidates Square Off in Forum
The five general election candidates in California's 10th Congressional District special election squared off in a public debate last night at St. Mary's in Orinda. The differences between Democrat John Garamendi and Republican David Harmer could not be more clear:
Harmer said Obama needs to stop "equivocating" and define the mission, provide resources to further that mission and stick with it.
Garamendi said military operations need to wind down and social and economic development plans need to ramp up. "We will not win this war militarily," he said. Once the education system is improved, the country will change itself, he said.
Harmer said if troops were withdrawn now it would create a "humanitarian catastrophe."
"I'm astonished that self-proclaimed liberals don't see the vacuum that would ensue," he said.
The two candidates shared similar views on a state water proposal that could include a peripheral canal.
Garamendi opposed the peripheral canal, saying that state should instead: pursue water conservation, urge Southern California to reuse its water, protect the Delta, shore up levies and improve storage.
Harmer says he's "highly skeptical" of a peripheral canal for the cost alone, but also potential water property rights violations as well. He said he would fight for local drinking, agricultural and environmental water concerns, and lastly the concerns of Southern California water stakeholders.
Also in attendance were three third-party candidates from the Green Party, American Independence Party and the Peace and Freedom Party:
Cloward, a 38-year-old political science professor at Diablo Valley College who lives in Pleasant Hill, repeated throughout his remarks that military spending must be cut to properly fund other more important programs, such as education.
Denham, a 74-year-old insurance agent and financial planner from Walnut Creek, steered most questions back to the Constitution. The American Independent candidate vowed, if elected, to cut each federal agency by 25 percent and reduce the size of federal government by 90 percent.
McIlroy, 50, of El Cerrito, called for the immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan and proposed taxing oil and altering Prop. 13.
The forum will be televised three times prior to next week's election: Friday, October 30 at 8pm, Saturday, October 31 at 11:30am, and 8 p.m. and Sunday, November 1 at 7pm on Contra Costa Television (CCTV).